shows EUR/USD today analysisWednesday, September 23, 2026, with EUR/USD remaining under short-term downside pressure, currently trading at 1.14271 after a 0.19% drop in 24 hours. Price approaches the immediate support at 1.14240, while the nearest resistance sits at 1.14919, making the pair’s reaction to the support and European PMIs the focus of the session.
EUR/USD analysis today: technical trend
The trend recorded on 15-minute and hourly and 4-hour timeframes is sellThese frameworks agree that sellers are dominant at the moment, but that does not mean the drop is certain or will continue without pullbacks, especially with the price close to a clear support level and economic data capable of increasing volatility.
Platform engine reading supports the same bias; 8 out of 14 conditions are met, with a selling signal and moderate confidence. This rating is not decisive; it means several technical factors lean negative, while other conditions do not align with this trend.
The ATR real range averages 0.00064. This indicator measures typical movement during the period used in its calculation and does not indicate price direction. It can be used to understand volatility, noting that data releases may cause actual movement to diverge from the average range.
Support and resistance levels
The most important available technical levels are:
- Current price: 1.14271.
- Nearest support: 1.14240.
- Nearest resistance: 1.14919.
- ATR: Average True Range: 0.00064.
The price being near 1.14240 makes this the first test of the downtrend. Staying above it may allow a rebound attempt, but a rebound does not automatically flip the trend to positive. Buyers need to push the price toward 1.14919 and then show the ability to hold above it to clearly weaken the current bearish read.
Conversely, breaking 1.14240 and staying underneath could support continued selling pressure. The data do not include a lower support level, so a reliable downside target after the break cannot be determined. A return and hold above the support after breaking it would invalidate the direct downtrend scenario and may indicate the break was temporary.
Today's data impact on EUR/USD
Eurozone PMIs focus on preliminary readings for France and Germany, all rated mid-impact. France data begins at 07:15 UTC.
- French manufacturing PMI: expected 50.9 vs 51.5 previously.
- French services PMI: expected 48.3 vs 48.4 previously.
Then German data due at 07:30 UTC:
- German industrial index: expected 54.1, equal to the previous reading 54.1.
- German services PMI: expected 49.9 vs previous 48.5.
Practically, the euro may benefit if readings come in better than expected on a broad scale, especially if German services show an improvement beyond expectations. In that case, a rebound from 1.14240 and testing 1.14919 becomes a possibility. This scenario is negated if the price fails to hold the support or if the market response is negative despite strong data.
Weak readings than expected may heighten concerns about European economic activity, potentially pressuring the euro and supporting a break below 1.14240. This scenario would be invalidated if the market absorbs negative results and quickly returns price above the support. The move could also be choppy if results diverge, such as one sector improving while another weakens.
The economic calendar in the attached file does not include US events or dollar data, so there are no figures available to assess the US side during the session. This matters because EUR/USD is influenced by both currencies’ performance, not by Eurozone data alone.
Remaining forex events today
The economic calendar also includes the Swiss interest rate decision and the Swiss National Bank monetary policy assessment at 07:30 UTC. The expected rate is 0.00%, equal to the previous reading of 0.00%. These events may affect euro-area currency market volatility in general, but they do not provide a direct or guaranteed signal for the EUR/USD pair.
As data also include UK Manufacturing PMI at 08:30, along with Australian employment and unemployment data at 01:30. Its direct impact on EUR/USD is usually smaller than euro data, but shifting risk appetite may reflect on the dollar and the forex market movement.
In other markets, Ripple rose 3.83% to 1.633, Solana up 0.44% to 119.09, Bitcoin up 0.39% to 86542.01, and Ethereum up 0.17% to 2758.36 over 24 hours. This positive performance reflects improvement in those instruments but does not alone indicate a trend for the euro or the dollar.
Most likely scenarios for the session
- Bearish scenario: Break 1.14240 and hold below it may keep selling pressure. It is invalidated by reclaiming the level and staying above it.
- Rebound scenario: Defense of 1.14240, especially with Eurozone data coming in better than expected, could open room to test 1.14919. It is negated by a loss of support.
- Volatile scenario: Divergence in French and German data may confine movement between support and resistance. This scenario weakens if a firm break of either level occurs.
In short, the current bias is bearish with moderate confidence, but the price approaching support makes chasing the downside more sensitive to data results. This content is market analysis, not financial advice.
Key points
- The trend on 15-minute, hourly and 4-hour frames leans toward selling, with medium confidence according to the platform engine.
- Support 1.14240 is the critical level, while resistance 1.14919 represents the nearest rebound target.
- PMI data for France and Germany may increase volatility and determine price response to support.
